For marketing and other business divisions, hindsight bias is only relevant internally. While not directly involved in customer communication, hindsight bias plays a role in decision-making: in making the right marketing communication strategy, the correct predictions of market trends, the best crisis management plan, and other decisions or statements that require someone to take responsibility. The following are three examples of statements that strongly indicate hindsight bias:
- “I don’t remember saying that.”
- “Anyone could have seen this coming.”
- “I told you this was bound to happen.”
While hindsight bias is complex, it is relatively easy to detect its manifestation in language. In conflict situations (e.g. regarding poor marketing decisions), it is definitely worth taking a step back to talk about whether hindsight bias played a role and what influence it may have had.
When it comes to sales promotion, however, hindsight bias can be used in any situation where customers overestimate themselves. Another important aspect is that people are always looking to validate their own world view and values, but in doing so, get bogged down in the details and lose sight of the bigger picture. That’s why consumers find modest product ranges advertised with clear marketing messages more approachable, especially when the communicated values are shared by many people.
Hindsight bias has been scientifically proven, but the debate around this cognitive bias is still contentious. There are two sides to this argument. One side argues that hindsight bias is dangerous because it makes it harder to learn from one’s own mistakes due to incorrect predictions and assumptions. The other side argues that hindsight bias is a useful mental mechanism to reward us through self-delusion, “disposes” of unnecessary information, and helps us learn via simplified causalities.